The War in Iraq ... Do Over!
"… Bush announces a 21,000 troop surge and an extended stay by those already deployed..."
(President Bush Whitehouse speech, January 2007)
As a tactical play to reduce short term violence, it may be consequential to the degree we know whom we are to capture, kill or control.
However, the fluidity of the groups we are to fight, and their ability to blend into society, whilst being fully protected by their own people, not to mention the existence of fear, death, and other forms of intimidation, make this a hard military play. But, let us assume that the new military structure and the “new” rules of engagement are appropriate…for now!
The bigger question is: “What happens during and after this military play?” Here is one view.
First, the “insurgents” will distribute the violence both across Iraq and globally. This will begin the first strategic counter play, and give the illusion of success. Remember, deception is a tactic.
In short they will begin to take the fight where the military is not. For small groups it is easier to move (i.e., re-deploy) then for larger groups. The deception in the short term is the false illusion of peace in Baghdad, and a sense of order in the city that in turn will feel like success. With this success, the population will return, begin to re-establish their daily routines, and all will be well and good.
However, in due course, the slow boil will continue as it always has (i.e., when Sadam was ruling the city by force), yet the underlying problems will not be solved.
Second, the attacks will increase on American troops and on American interests globally as it will help decrease American support and resolve. This, along with increasing proactive propaganda focusing on yet another move by the US to further occupy the region, will help increase the hatred and anger towards the US, its policy and people, and will give cause to yet another generation of people to fight a religious battle against us as people.
Third, by focusing on protecting Baghdad and not the region in general, along with the redistribution of violence, we are restating the lack of importance of other regions (e.g., The Shiite south and the Kurdish north) further fueling the need for the creation of a Republic. This will force more support by the Iranians for both the south and the Kurdish north. A republic is a fundamental outcome that will benefit Iran. Indeed a republic is the best long term solution for all, if it were done correctly.
The consequences of this surge are as follows.
Thus far, in our reactionary military tactic we have lost over 3000 lives (i.e., ~%2.3), in any action oriented tactic, where we're pursuing the enemy (i.e., a change in rules of engagement), we shall see a two to three fold increase in lives lost, that is at least a 4-6% estimated death toll, not to mention the injured, maimed and disabled. The statistics are higher when troops are blended (i.e., Iraqi and US), and when fighting occurs in urban surroundings against a fluid and unmarked enemy force. In short we are looking at least another 1000 or more American deaths, and thousands injured. Not to mention the dollar costs, which to date is well over $400 billion.
The insurgency will be distributed, further solidified ideologically, and better funded.
The Iranian government will become more emboldened, resolved, and powerful.
And, we shall have a demoralized, depleted and exhausted US military force, affecting any and all recruitment attraction and retention strategies, with long tern global consequences.
Deal with Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds, with a republic in mind, with the following resources divisions as a focus; oil, land, as well as water way and water rights. This is what everyone wants with the exception of the US, only because we do not want to deal with Iran, which takes us to the next point.
Deal with Iran once and for all. This does not include yet another military strike but one whereby the existing theocratic government is removed, or normalized by all standards of democracy, decency, and human rights. This can only be done politically with a nice blend of covert operations inciting the exiting 60% population of Iranians who were born after the first revolution and who cannot wait for a wave of change to help eliminate the theocracy that they hate. We've done this once before when we helped remove the Shah and his dictatorship, which incidentally got us to this place, and so we can do it again to fix the first blunder.
Contributed to Boroumand by A.R., San Rafael, California, 2007